Emergence: Babies and Bathwater, Plans and Planning

blueprints

 

“Emergent” is a word that I run into from time to time. When I do run into it, I’m reminded of an exchange from the movie Gallipoli:

Archy Hamilton: I’ll see you when I see you.
Frank Dunne: Yeah. Not if I see you first.

The reason for my ambivalent relationship with the word is that it’s frequently used in a sense that doesn’t actually fit its definition. Dictionary.com defines it like this:

adjective

1. coming into view or notice; issuing.
2. emerging; rising from a liquid or other surrounding medium.
3. coming into existence, especially with political independence: the emergent nations of Africa.
4. arising casually or unexpectedly.
5. calling for immediate action; urgent.
6. Evolution. displaying emergence.

noun

7. Ecology. an aquatic plant having its stem, leaves, etc., extending above the surface of the water.

Most of the adjective definitions apply to planning and design (which I consider to be a specialized form of planning). Number 3 is somewhat tenuous for that sense and and 5 only applies sometimes, but 6 is dead on.

My problem, however, starts when it’s used as a euphemism for a directionless. The idea that a cohesive, coherent result will “emerge” from responding tactically (whether in software development or in managing a business) is, in my opinion, a dangerous one. I’ve never heard an explanation of how strategic success emerges from uncoordinated tactical excellence that doesn’t eventually come down to faith. It’s why I started tagging posts on the subject “Intentional vs Accidental Architecture”. Success that arises from lack of coordination is accidental rather than by design (not to mention ironic when the lack of intentional coordination or planning/design is intentional itself):

If you don’t know where you are going, any road will get you there.

 

The problem, of course, is do you want to be at the “there” you wind up at? There’s also the issue of cost associated with a meandering path when a more direct route was available.

None of this, however, should be taken as a rejection of emergence. In fact, a dogmatic attachment to a plan in the face of emergent facts is as problematic as pursuing an accidental approach. Placing your faith in a plan that has been invalidated by circumstances is as blinkered an approach as refusing to plan at all. Neither extreme makes much sense.

We lack the ability to foresee everything that can occur, but that limit does not mean that we should ignore what we can foresee. A purely tactical focus can lead us down obvious blind alleys that will be more costly to back out of in the long run. Experience is an excellent teacher, but the tuition is expensive. In other words, learning from our mistakes is good, but learning from other’s mistakes is better.

Darwinian evolution can produce lead to some amazing things provided you can spare millions of years and lots of failed attempts. An intentional approach allows you to tip the scales in your favor.


Many thanks to Andrew Campbell and Adrian Campbell for the multi-day twitter conversation that spawned this post. Normally, I unplug from almost all social media on the weekends, but I enjoyed the discussion so much I bent the rules. Cheers gentlemen!

Capability Now, Capability Later

Mock tank, British Army in Italy, WWII

In my post “Strategic Tunnel Vision”, I touched on the concept of capability. I discussed how focusing on new capabilities can crowd out existing capabilities and the detrimental effects of that when those existing capabilities are still necessary. I also spoke to how choices about strategic capabilities can trickle down to effect tactical capabilities.

What I failed to do, however, was define what was meant by the term “capability”. That’s a pretty big oversight on my part, because, in my opinion, understanding the concept is critical across all levels of architectural concerns.

Tom Graves, in his “Definitions on capability”, defines the term (along with some related concepts):

— Capability: the ability to do something.

— Capability-based planning: planning to do something, based on capabilities that already exist, and/or that will be added to the existing suite of capabilities; also, identifying the capabilities that would be needed to implement and execute a plan.

— Capability increment: an extension to an existing capability; also, a plan to extend a capability.

— Capability map: a visual and/or textual description of (usually) an organisation’s capabilities.

Yes, I do know that those definitions are terribly bland and generic – and they need to be that way. That’s the whole point: they need to be generic enough to be valid and usable at every possible level and in every possible context – otherwise we’ll introduce yet more confusion to something that’s often way too confused already.

That last paragraph is critical. The concept of “capability” is a high-level one that is useful across multiple levels of architectural concern (ie. application, solution, enterprise IT, and the enterprise itself). Quoting Tom again:

Note what else is intentionally not in that definition of ‘capability‘:

  • there’s no actual doing – it’s just an ability to do something, not the usage of that ability
  • there’s no ‘how’ – we don’t assume anything about how that capability works, or what it’s made up of
  • there’s no ‘why‘ – we don’t assume any particular purpose
  • there’s no ‘who‘ – we don’t assume anything about who’s responsible for this capability, or where it sits in an organisational hierarchy or suchlike

We do need all of those items, of course, as we start to flesh out the details of how the capabilities would be implemented and used in real-world practice. But in the core-definition itself, we very carefully don’t – they must not be included in the definition itself.

The reason why we have to be so careful and pedantic about this is because the relationship between service, capability, function and the rest is inherently recursive and fractal: each of them contains all of the others, which in turn each contain all of the others, and so on almost to infinity. If we don’t use deliberately-generic definitions for all of those items, we get ourselves into a tangle very quickly indeed – as can be seen all too easily in the endless definitional-battles about the relationships between ‘business-function’ versus ‘business-process’ versus ‘business-service’ versus ‘business-capability’ and so on.

In short, it’s a crucial building block in our designs and plans (which is redundant, since design is a form of planning). If we don’t have and can’t get the ability to do something, it’s game over. However, as Tom noted, we need to move beyond the raw ability in order to make effective use of capabilities. We need to think timing and personnel (which will probably largely drive timing anyway). A capability later may well not be as valuable as the same capability right now.

This was brought to mind while skimming a book review on a military strategy site (emphasis added by me):

In March 2015, then-Chief of Staff of the U.S. Army General Raymond T. Odierno admitted to the British newspaper The Telegraph that the so-called special relationship between the United States and Great Britain isn’t what it used to be. “In the past we would have a British Army division working alongside an American army division,” he said, but he feared that in the future British battalions and brigades would have to operate “inside” American units. “What has changed,” Odierno declared, “is the level of capability.”

Later that week, I asked a senior British general about Odierno’s remarks. He replied, deadpan, that although Odierno’s candor was appreciated, his statement was factually incorrect. “We can still field a division,” the general insisted. “It is just a question of how long it takes us to field one.” Potential tanks, he seemed to think, were just as relevant as an actual ones.

The highlighted portion of the quote illustrates my point. Having the capability to do something immediately and the capability to do that same thing at some point in the future are not equivalent (just to be fair to the British Army, the US Army was in this same position during Operation Desert Shield – the initial ground forces that could be deployed were extremely thin). Treating them as equivalent potentially risks disaster.

It should be noted, however, that level of concern will color the perception of the value of a future capability versus a current one. At the tactical level, in business as well as in war, “…first with the most…” is likely a winning move. At the strategic level, however, where resources must be budgeted across multiple initiatives, priorities should dictate which capabilities get preference. Tactical leaders may have to be satisfied with “on time with just enough”.

Regardless of level, a clear assessment of capabilities, what’s available when, is key to making effective decisions.

What’s Innovation Worth?

Animated GIF of Sherman Tank Variants

What does an old World War II tank have to do with innovation?

I’ve mentioned it before, but it bears repeating – one of benefits of having a blog is the ability to interact with and learn from people all over the world. For example, Greger Wikstrand and I have been trading blog posts on innovation for six months now. His latest post, “Switcher’s curse and legacy decisions”,is the 18th installment in the series. In this post, Greger discusses switcher’s curse, “a trap in which a decision maker systematically switches too often”.

Just as the sunk cost fallacy can keep you holding on to a legacy system long past its expiration date, switcher’s curse can cause you to waste money on too-frequent changes. As Greger points out in his post, the net benefit of the new system must outweigh both the net benefit of the old, plus the cost of switching (with a significant safety margin to account for estimation errors in assessing the costs and benefits). Newer isn’t automatically better.

“Disruption” is a two-edged sword when it comes to innovation. As Greger notes regarding legacy systems:

Existing software is much more than a series of decisions to keep it. It embodies a huge number of decisions on how the business of the company should work. The software is full of decisions about business objects and what should be done with them. These decisions, embodied in the software, forms the operating system of the company. The decision to switch is bigger than replacing some immaterial asset with another. It is a decision about replacing a proven way of working with a new way of working.

Disruption involves risk. Change involves cost; disruptive change involves higher costs. In “Innovate or Execute?”, Earl Beede asked:

So, do our employers really want us taking the processes they have paid dearly to implement and products they have scheduled out for the next 15 quarters and, individually, do something disruptive? Every team member taking a risk to see what they can learn and then build on?

Wouldn’t that be chaos?

Beede’s answer to the dilemma:

Now, please don’t think I am completely cynical. I do think that the board of directors and maybe even the C-level officers want to have innovative companies. I really believe that there needs to be parts of a company whose primary mission is to make the rest of the company obsolete. But those disruptive parts need to be small, isolated groups, kept out of the day-to-day delivery of the existing products or services.

What employers should be asking for is for most of the company to be focused on executing the existing plans and for some of the company to be trying to put the executing majority into a whole new space.

This meshes well with Greger’s recommendations:

Conservatism is often the best approach. But it needs to be a prudent conservatism. Making changes smaller and more easily reversible decreases the need for caution. We should consider a prudent application of fail fast mentality in our decision-making process. (But I prefer to call it learn fast.)

Informed decision-making (i.e. making decisions that make sense in light of your context) is critical. The alternative is to rely on blind luck. Being informed requires learning, and as Greger noted, fast turn-around on that learning is to be preferred. Likewise, limiting risk during learning is to be preferred as well. Casimir Artmann, in his post “Fail is not an option”, discussed this concept in relation to hiking in the wilderness. Assessing and controlling risk in that environment can be a matter of life in death. In a business context, it’s the same (even if the “death” is figurative, it’s not much comfort considering the lives impacted). Learning is only useful if you survive to put it to use.

Lastly, it must be understood that decision-making is not a one-time activity. Context is not static, neither should your decision-making process be. An iterative cycle of sense-making and decision-making is required to maintain the balance between innovation churn and stagnation.

So, why the tank?

The M-4 Sherman, in addition to being the workhorse of the U.S. Army’s armor forces in World War II, is also an excellent illustration of avoiding the switcher’s curse. When it was introduced, it was a match for existing German armored vehicles. Shortly afterwards, however, it was outclassed as newer, heavier, better armed German models came online. The U.S. stuck with their existing design, and were able to produce almost three times the number of tanks as Germany (not counting German tanks inferior to the Sherman). As the saying goes, “quantity has a quality all its own”, particularly when paired with other weapon systems in a way that did not disrupt production. The German strategy of producing multiple models hampered their ability to produce in quantity, negating their qualitative advantage. In this instance, progressive enhancement and innovating on the edges was a winning strategy for the U.S.

What We Have Here is a Failure to Communicate

“What we’ve got here is failure to communicate” and it appears to be epidemic. My own personal grand unified theory of everything is that most problems stem from or are aggravated by a lack of communication. Whether the topic is process, governance, planning, estimates, or design, chances are it’s easier to find opinions (and worse, policy and practices) based on one-sided viewpoints than a balanced understanding of the contexts involved. This is dangerous due to the simple fact that organizations are social systems (frequently fractal systems of systems) and as Ruth Malan has noted:

Russell Ackoff urged that to design a system, it must be seen in the context of the larger system of which it is part. Any system functions in a larger system (various larger systems, for that matter), and the boundaries of the system — its interaction surfaces and the capabilities it offers — are design negotiations. That is, they entail making decisions with trade-off spaces, with implications and consequences for the system and its containing system of systems. We must architect across the boundaries, not just up to the boundaries. If we don’t, we naively accept some conception of the system boundary and the consequent constraints both on the system and on its containing systems (of systems) will become clear later. But by then much of the cast will have set. Relationships and expectations, dependencies and interdependencies will create inertia. Costs of change will be higher, perhaps too high.

In other words, systems exist within an ecosystem, not a vacuum. Failure to take context into account harms systems (whether software or social) by baking in harmful structures and behaviors and we cannot take into account contexts that are not communicated and appreciated. This, by the way, is why you find posts about management and process on a site with the tagline “All Things Architectural”.

This is why I believe that successfully managing technical debt can’t happen without successfully communicating to the customer when it’s being taken on, what the costs involved are (or may be) and how it’s affecting the evolution of the product.

This is why I believe the answer to problems related to estimation lies in communication and collaboration, rather than #NoEstimates on the one hand or rigid authoritarianism on the other. This, in my opinion, holds true for all the social system issues (management, process, governance, planning, quality, and architectural design) that affect software development. Without understanding (which does not happen without communication) the goals behind the practices and what results are being achieved, it’s unlikely that the system will work to the satisfaction of anyone.

Local “optimizations” won’t fix systemic problems. We need to bridge the gaps. Can we talk?

Updated 4/8/2016 to fix a broken link.

Planning and Designing – Intentional, Accidental, Emergent

Over the last three years, I’ve written eleven posts tagged with “Emergence”. In a discussion over the past week of my previous post, I’ve come to the realization that I’ve been misusing that term. In essence, I’ve been conflating emergent architecture with accidental architecture when they’re very different concepts:

In both cases, aspects of the architecture emerge, but the circumstance under which that occurs is vastly different. When architectural design is intentional, emergence occurs as a result of learning. For example, as multiple contexts are reconciled, challenges will emerge. This learning process will continue over the lifetime of the product. With accidental architecture, emergence occurs via lack of preparation, either through inadequate analysis or perversely, through intentionally ignoring needs that aren’t required for the task at hand (even if those needs are confirmed). With this type of emergence, lack of a clear direction leads to conflicting ad hoc responses. If time is not spent to rework these responses, then system coherence suffers. The fix for the problem of Big Design Up Front (BDUF) is appropriate design, not absence of design.

James Coplien, in his recent post “Procrastination”, takes issue with the idea of purposeful ignorance:

There is a catch phrase for it which we’ll examine in a moment: “defer decisions to the last responsible moment.” The agile folks add an interesting twist (with a grain of truth) that the later one defers a decision, the more information there will be on which to base the decision.

Alarmingly, this agile posture is used either as an excuse or as an admonition to temper up-front planning. The attitude perhaps arose as a rationalisation against the planning fanaticism of 1980s methodologies. It’s true that time uncovers more insight, but the march of time also opens the door both to entropy and “progress.” Both constrain options. And to add our own twist, acting early allows more time for feedback and course correction. A stitch in time saves nine. If you’re on a journey and you wait until the end to make course corrections, when you’re 40% off-course, it takes longer to remedy than if you adjust your path from the beginning. Procrastination is the thief of time.

Rebecca Wirfs-Brock has also blogged on feeling “discomfort” and “stress” when making decisions at the last responsible moment. That stress is significant, given study findings she quoted:

Giora Keinan, in a 1987 Journal of Personal and Social Psychology article, reports on a study that examined whether “deficient decision making” under stress was largely due to not systematically considering all relevant alternatives. He exposed college student test subjects to “controllable stress”, “uncontrollable stress”, or no stress, and measured how it affected their ability to solve interactive decision problems. In a nutshell being stressed didn’t affect their overall performance. However, those who were exposed to stress of any kind tended to offer solutions before they considered all available alternatives. And they did not systematically examine the alternatives.

Admittedly, the test subjects were college students doing word analogy puzzles. And the uncontrolled stress was the threat of a small random electric shock….but still…the study demonstrated that once you think you have a reasonable answer, you jump to it more quickly under stress.

It should be noted that although this study didn’t show a drop in performance due to stress, the problems involved were more black and white than design decisions which are best fit type problems. Failure to “systematically examine the alternatives” and the tendency to “offer solutions before they considered all available alternatives” should be considered red flags.

Coplien’s connection of design and planning is significant. Merriam-Webster defines “design” as a form of planning (and the reverse works as well if you consider organizations to be social systems). A tweet from J. B. Rainsberger illustrates an extremely important point about planning (and by extension, design):

In my opinion, a response to “unexpected results” is more likely to be effective if you have conducted the systematic examination of the alternatives beforehand when the stress that leads you to jump to a solution without considering all available alternatives is absent. What needs to be avoided is failing to ensure that the plan/design aligns with the context. This type of intentional planning/design can provide resilience for systems by taking future needs and foreseeable issues into account, giving you options for when the context changes. Even if those needs are not implemented, you can avoid constraints that would make dealing with them when they arise more difficult. Likewise, having options in place for dealing with likely issues can make the difference between a brief problem and a prolonged outage. YAGNI is only a virtue when you really aren’t going to need it.

As Ruth Malan has noted, architectural design involves shaping:

Would you expect that shaping to result in something coherent if it was merely a collection of disconnected tactical responses?

Who Needs Architects? – Are You Committed to Reaching Your Goals?

Two wedding rings

A good way to avoid writer’s block is to have a smart and engaged readership. They tend to ask questions that keep you on your toes. Thomas Cagley did the honors on my last post dealing with separation of concerns and the need for architectural design up to the level of enterprise IT architecture:

Is there an approach you would suggest to ensure this type of thinking occurs when it really matters rather than a reaction to problems?

I responded with:

The short answer is commitment, which is best demonstrated by having goals (both in terms of process and in terms of application, solution, and enterprise IT architecture) and having people responsible for making sure those goals are accounted for in day to day operations.

The long answer will be this week’s post. 🙂

“Accidental architecture”, the organic, undirected evolution of architecture, describes the state of many organizations today. This state of affairs exists across the entire range of application, solution, and enterprise IT architectures. Without coherent goals and a plan of how the parts will work together toward these common goals, how could it be otherwise? As Tom Graves noted in “Governance is not an end in itself”:

…things work better when they work together, on purpose.

Purposeful governance is needed to direct efforts towards the same goals. Not because people need to be directed to perform, but because people need to know what is valued to direct their own performance in a way that benefits the organization as a whole. Purposeful governance is the opposite of governance for the sake of being able to say we have governance (Tom again):

…governance should never be ‘an end in itself’. Instead, governance exists solely to support a business need – or, more specifically, to keep things on track towards that business-need.

Anyone can get caught by surprise, even under the best of circumstances, but failing to plan practically ensures that problems will arise. Returning to a policy of neglect as soon as a brushfire is put out effectively ensures that another fire (and likely one from the same source) will break out. Effective governance (IT and otherwise) requires commitment: commitment to determine a direction towards organizational goals, commitment to follow through with action to achieve those goals and commitment to monitor that the goals remain the same and the direction continues to point towards those goals. This requires full time commitment to and ownership of those considerations.

Would you ride with a driver that wouldn’t commit to paying attention to the road unless there was a problem and only until the problem was “solved”?

Effective governance requires commitment to collaboration. Just as those responsible for the solution and application architectures need direction to mesh with the IT architecture of the enterprise, those responsible for the solution and enterprise IT architectures need the feedback of those responsible for the application architectures. Failure to listen can lead to catastrophe as can failure to achieve engagement:

As I noted above, many organizations have an “accidental architecture”. There are many reasons for why this is where they are now. The more important question is are they willing to remain there or will they make the commitment to take control of their future?

Surfing the Plan

Hang loose

In a previous post, I used the Eisenhower quote “…plans are useless but planning is indispensable”. The Agile Manifesto expresses a preference for “Responding to change over following a plan”. A tweet I saw recently illustrates both of those points and touches on why so many seem to have problems with estimates:

Programming IRL:
“ETA for an apple pie?”
“2h”
8h later:
“Where is it?”
“You didn’t tell me the dishes were dirty and you lacked an oven.”

At first glance, it’s the age-old story of being given inadequate requirements and then being held to an estimate long after it’s proven unreasonable. However, it should also be clear that the estimate was given without adequate initial planning, no “plan B” and when the issues were discovered, there was no communication of the need to revise the estimate by an additional 300%.

Before the torches and pitchforks come out, I’m not assigning blame. There are no villains in the scenario, just two victims. While I’ve seen my share of dysfunctional situations where the mutual distrust between IT and the business was the result of bad actors, I’ve also seen plenty that were the result of good people trapped inside bad processes. If the situation can be salvaged, communication and collaboration are going to be critical to doing so.

People deal with uncertainty every day. Construction projects face delays due to weather. Watch any home improvement show and chances are you’ll see a renovation project that has to change scope or cost due to an unforeseen situation. Even surgeons find themselves changing course due to circumstances they weren’t aware of until the patient was on the table. What the parties need to be aware of is that the critical matter is not whether or not an issue appears, but how it’s handled.

The first aspect of handling issues is not to stick to a plan that is past its “sell by” date. A plan is only valid within its context and when the context changes, sticking to the plan is delusional. If your GPS tells you to go straight and your eyes tell you the bridge is out, which should you believe?

Sometimes the expiration of a plan is strategic; the goal is not feasible and continuing will only waste time, money, and effort. Other times, the goal remains, but the original tactical approach is no longer valid. There are multiple methods appropriate to tactical decision-making. Two prominent ones are Deming’s Plan-Do-Check-Act and Boyd’s Observe-Orient-Decide-Act. Each has its place, but have a looping nature in common. Static plans work for neither business leaders nor fighter pilots.

The second aspect of handling issues is communication. It can be easy for IT to lose sight of the fact that the plan they’re executing is a facet of the overarching plan that their customer is executing. Whether in-house IT or contractor, the relationship with the business is a symbiotic one. In my experience, success follows those who recognize that and breakdowns occur when it is ignored. Constant communication and involvement with that customer avoids the trust-killing green-green-green-RED!!! project management theater.

In his post “Setting Expectations”, George Dinwiddie nailed the whole issue with plans and estimates:

What if we were able to set expectations beyond a simple number? What if we could say what we know and what we don’t know? What if we could give our best estimate now, and give a better one next week when we know more? Would that help?

The thing is, these questions are not about the estimates. These questions are about the relationship between the person estimating and the person using the estimate. How can we improve that relationship?