Cause and Effect – Cargo Cults and Carts Before Horses

Sometimes our love of shortcuts can make us really stupid. Take, for example, the idea of “Fail Fast”. As Jeff Sussna observed in his post “Rethinking Failure”, “Suddenly failure is all the rage.” He also noted:

By itself, failure is anything but good. Making the same mistake over and over again doesn’t help anyone. Failure leads to success when I learn from it by changing my behavior or understanding in response to it. Even then, it’s impossible to guarantee that my response will in fact lead to success. The validity of any given response can only be evaluated in hindsight.

Dan McClure, in “Why the “Fail Fast” Philosophy Doesn’t Work”, agreed:

If your only strategy for exploring the unknown is to pick up rocks and look underneath, then the more rocks you turn over the better. The problem is that for real world innovations, test and reject doesn’t scale well. For disruptive ideas with the potential to make a difference in the market there are lots and lots of rocks.

The value in “Fail Fast” lies in the “Fast” part; there’s no magic in the “Fail”. If you’re going to fail, finding out about it sooner, rather than later, is less costly. Less costly, however, is a far cry from best. Succeeding obviously works much better than failing fast, meaning that methods which allow you to evaluate without incurring the time, pain, and expense of a failure are a better choice when available.

Another example of this phenomenon is what Matt Balantine recently referred to as “investor-centric” development:

That, of course, creates an interesting rabbit hole – investors chasing products that will be “hot” and products designed to appeal to investors rather than customers (which would result in the product becoming “hot”). Matt’s comment from his post “What if the answer isn’t software?” applies, “I’ve no doubt that we are seeing real issues and opportunities being ignored in the pursuit of the rainbow-pooping unicorns.”

Yet another example of magical thinking is via believing in the “Great Man Theory”. People like Steve Jobs and Elon Musk have achieved great things, but as a result of what they did, not who they are. Divorced from their context, it’s a hard sell to argue that they would be equally successful.

Effectiveness is more likely to come from systems thinking than magical thinking. Understanding cause and effect as well as interrelationships and context makes the difference between rational decision-making and superstition.

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One thought on “Cause and Effect – Cargo Cults and Carts Before Horses

  1. Pingback: Conflicts, Collaboration, and Customers | Form Follows Function

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