Napoleon nearly avoided his Waterloo.
Two days prior to the battle, Napoleon managed to divide the Prussian army from its Anglo-Dutch allies under Wellington. With the bulk of his forces, he attacked the Prussians while his subordinate, Marshall Michel Ney, screened Wellington’s forces dribbling in from Brussels. Napoleon’s main body had beaten the more numerous Prussians and he called on Ney’s I Corps, nearly twenty thousand strong, to fall on the Prussian right and complete the victory. Ney, meanwhile, called for I Corps to continue on to him and sweep away Wellington’s forces.
The French I Corps marched back and forth between the two battles, taking part in neither. Had either allied army been decisively defeated, then the outcome could have been much different. As it turned out, Wellington’s army was reinforced in the nick of time by the Prussians, and together they made Waterloo synonymous with downfall.
Uncertainty is an ever-present factor in the design and development of software. It is extremely important to recognize and acknowledge that uncertainty in order to mitigate it. Given that choices carry the risk of locking you into a particular approach, increasing flexibility by deferring commitment is a logical technique. One of the principles of Real Options is “Never commit early unless you know why”.
However, another principle of Real Options is “Options expire”. Decisions cannot and should not be deferred indefinitely. Failure to choose is a choice in itself and all the more dangerous if its nature isn’t recognized.
Architectural choices are architectural constraints. However, it should be recognized that constraints provide structure. Just as the walls that bound a building define it, so too design choices define systems. The key is that the definition of the system aligns with its goals and retains as much flexibility as possible.
Commitment can bring with it its own set of anxieties. Second-guessing is human nature and circumstances can be remarkably fluid. Once committed, however, radical change should be approached more carefully. Ignoring the cost of changing directions can be as much a source of analysis paralysis as failing to decide in the first place. It’s better to get into the battle with your best effort than to march around in circles hoping for something a little better.